August 12, 2026 The global heat pump market is valued at USD 92.7 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 166.5 billion by 2036, expanding at a 5.9% CAGR from 2026 to 2036, according to Fact.MR. The market was valued at USD 88.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to create an absolute dollar opportunity of nearly USD 71.7 billion over 2026–2036.

Demand is rising as businesses and consumers shift toward energy-efficient heating and cooling. Fact.MR points to supportive government policies, decarbonization targets, higher adoption of electricity-based heating, and retrofits of existing buildings as major growth drivers. Advances in cold-climate performance, smart controls, and hybrid energy systems are also widening the use of heat pumps.

Industry evidence and recent developments

Fact.MR states that its research uses secondary sources including the International Energy Agency (IEA), World Bank, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), government energy departments, industry reports, company filings, and sustainability disclosures. However, the published page does not provide dated third-party statistics from these sources, so no separate IEA, World Bank, or EIA figures are added here.

The page does report dated company developments. In February 2026, Daikin expanded its Stylish air-to-air heat pump range. In March 2026, Carrier Ventures invested in Heat Geek to support residential heat pump adoption in Europe. Fact.MR also notes that Daikin announced next-generation heat pump innovations, including low-GWP refrigerants and advanced systems, at ISH 2025.

Get detailed market forecasts, competitive benchmarking, and pricing trends: https://www.factmr.com/connectus/sample?flag=S&rep_id=3763

Key numbers

• Market value, 2025:USD 88.6 billion
• Market value, 2026:USD 92.7 billion
• Forecast value, 2036:USD 166.5 billion
• Absolute opportunity, 2026–2036:USD 71.7 billion
• CAGR, 2026–2036:9%
• Growth multiple:8x

Source: Fact.MR analysis.

Segment breakdown

By product type: The market covers air-to-air, air-to-water, ground-source, and water-source heat pumps. Fact.MR identifies air-to-air and air-to-water systems as leading segments, supported by lower installation costs, easier deployment, residential adoption, and electrification policies.

By application: Residential, commercial, and industrial users form the main application groups. Residential retrofits and commercial building decarbonization are highlighted as important areas of growth.

By end use: Heat pumps serve space heating, water heating, and combined heating and cooling. Industrial demand is focused mainly on low- and medium-heat applications below 120°C.

By rated capacity: The market is segmented into up to 10 kW, 10–20 kW, 20–30 kW, and above 30 kW systems.

Country growth outlook

• India — 6.3%
• China — 6.0%
• Canada — 5.2%
• Japan — 5.2%
• S. — 4.8%
• Germany — 4.5%

Source: Fact.MR analysis, based on its proprietary forecasting model and primary research.

India records the highest CAGR among the countries listed at 6.3%. Fact.MR links this growth to urbanization, expanding residential and commercial infrastructure, and rising adoption of energy-efficient technologies. China follows at 6.0%, supported by electrification, infrastructure development, and decarbonization targets.

Competitive landscape

The competitive field includes Daikin Industries, Mitsubishi Electric, Panasonic Corporation, Carrier Global, Trane Technologies, Bosch Thermotechnology, and NIBE Industrier. Other profiled companies include Johnson Controls, LG Electronics, Fujitsu General, Samsung Electronics, Hitachi, Midea, Vaillant Group, and Glen Dimplex Group.

Fact.MR says competition is focused on energy efficiency, cold-climate performance, smart integration, advanced compressors, inverter systems, low-GWP refrigerants, digital monitoring, and after-sales services. Company market-share percentages are not published on the supplied Fact.MR page, so no unsupported share figures are included.

Analyst commentary

Fact.MR's published analyst opinion states: “The heat pump market is currently in a strong growth phase,” driven by energy efficiency, electrification, and decarbonization. The analysis also highlights government incentives and regulatory mandates as factors accelerating market expansion.

FAQ

What is the current size of the global heat pump market?
Fact.MR estimates the market at USD 92.7 billion in 2026.

How large will the heat pump market be by 2036?
Fact.MR forecasts a market value of USD 166.5 billion by 2036.

What is the expected heat pump market CAGR?
The market is forecast to grow at a 5.9% CAGR from 2026 to 2036.

Which country has the highest listed CAGR?
India leads the listed country outlook at 6.3% for 2026–2036.

Who are the major heat pump companies?
Major companies include Daikin Industries, Mitsubishi Electric, Panasonic Corporation, Carrier Global, Trane Technologies, Bosch Thermotechnology, and NIBE Industrier.

About Fact.MR

Fact.MR provides market research and consulting services covering industry trends, market sizing, forecasting, competitive analysis, and strategic insights. Its heat pump market assessment combines primary research, secondary research, quantitative modeling, and data triangulation.