Piper Sandler downgraded Globe Life Inc. (GL) to Neutral from Overweight on Friday and cut its price target to $165 from $200, according to Investing.com. The firm said the insurer lost much of the earnings predictability that had set it apart, after its third quarter report.

The new target is 17.5% below the old one ($165 against $200), as calculated by Trend & Ticker.

Piper Sandler pointed to three issues. The first is exposure to medical claims severity. The second is irregular Medicare Supplement claims, which the firm expects to persist in coming quarters. The third is 2027 guidance that looks less favorable for the core business.

Globe Life's own October 21 release supports the claims point. Health policyholder benefits rose to $272.1 million in the third quarter from $227.9 million a year earlier, a 19% increase as calculated by Trend & Ticker. Health premium grew 16% to $446.9 million, so benefits outran premium. The health underwriting margin slipped to 26% of premium from 28%.

The company tied the strain to two sources. It booked an underwriting loss of about $16 million at Evry, a group health business it is still building. It also took about $7 million of excess prior period Medicare Supplement claims, which it blamed on "a claims processing delay at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services."

Management said it adjusted its 2026 guidance because of those two items "rather than a fundamental change in our underlying core business."

Net operating income came in at $4.84 per diluted share, up from $4.81 a year earlier. Net income per diluted share fell to $4.62 from $4.73. Globe Life now guides to earnings of $15.35 to $15.65 per share for 2026 and net operating income of $16.10 to $17.10 per share for 2027.

At the 2027 midpoint of $16.60, the new $165 target equals about 9.9 times expected net operating earnings, as calculated by Trend & Ticker.

The company kept buying its own stock. It repurchased 1.1 million shares for $185 million in the quarter at an average of $175.61, above Piper Sandler's new target. It also raised its full year buyback expectation to $725 million to $775 million, up from $670 million to $700 million.