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New Orleans Saints in irreversible decline Sean Paytons pligh
In the zero-sum world of the NFL, where every team's victory is accompanied by another team's corresponding lo s, the line between good and not good enough can be exceedingly thin. And when a perennial power starts declining, it can be difficult to find the tipping point. When did this good team become ... not good?That question is being asked this week in New Orleans, where the are 0-2 and the sky is falling on the Superdome. In addition to his reduced productivity of late, after and , which is never something you want on your social calendar if you're a football player. NFL Media insider Ian Rapoport is reporting, though he's "pretty confident" he'll play Sunday.As recently as the 2013 season, the went 11-5 and won a road playoff game, going into Philadelphia and . But they fell to 7-9 last year, and general manager Mickey Loomis shook up the roster over the offseason (dealing away tight end and off-loading wide receiver after a promising second season). One gets the sense Loomis is trying to be -esque with the team, figuring that as long as the have Brees, they can play Moneyball with the rest of the roster. The early returns have not been promising.Here are a few prominent areas of concern:PersonnelThis game has been, is now and always will be about personnel. In their 2009 title campaign, the were loaded -- particularly on offense -- with both talent and experience. The offensive line was as good as any in the game, Tyler Anderson Jersey with Jonathan Goodwin at center, Carl Nicks and at guard, and Jon Stinchcomb and at tackle. That made everyone around them better; Brees had more time in the pocket, while the ground game had bigger holes to work with. New Orleans was deep at wide receiver with size and speed. Tight end/matchup problem Jeremy Shockey complemented multi-talented running backs Pierre Thomas and .Now the line is patchwork. The scored talented center from Seattle, but they had to give up Graham to get him. remains at wide receiver, but he's 32 years old. , of course, is a very promising second-year pro, but the have nothing at tight end to compromise a defense and give Cooks more room to operate. They are relying heavily on the productivity of at running back. Yet, behind this subpar line, Ingram is averaging an anemic 3.1 yards per carry -- easily the lowest figure of his career.The quarterbackAll of those personnel i sues we just discu sed put more pre sure on Brees. And even before news broke of Brees' current shoulder i sue, many folks were speculating that he's washed up. Rumors of Brees' demise are exaggerated and premature. He is the youngest of the "Big Three" future quarterbacks in his age group: Brees is 36, while is 38 and is 39. He takes great care of himself and has the complete support of his coach.That said, the big-picture problem -- the i sue that goes beyond the current shoulder ailment -- is that Brees has thrown 650-plus pa ses in seven of his past eight seasons. Brady and Manning haven't come close to putting that kind of wear and tear on themselves. And that's not just hard on your arm -- the more you drop back to pa s, the more hits you're going to take. The current i sue stems from a shot to Brees' shoulder by Bucs defensive end while the quarterback was in the midst of his throwing motion in the second quarter on Sunday.Brees' biggest problem has been that, without the supporting cast, he feels like he has to do it all on his own. This has caused him to force some pa ses that he might have been able to get away with in the past, with a stronger arm and better receivers.IdentityWhen the won the , they were a supremely talented group on offense and had a defense -- led by controversial coordinator Gregg Williams -- that was relentle sly aggre sive. Williams placed his focus on turnovers. He didn't give a damn where the ranked in total defense; his primary duty was to get the ball back in Brees' hands. Williams' unit ranked second in the NFL in takeaways that season, compared with just 25th in total defense.It's hard to tell what New Orleans' philosophy is these days.The defense has been extremely underwhelming through two weeks of action. The rank and . Current coordinator Rob Ryan is not his brother, Rex, and never has been. He's never been as aggre sive in his play calls and never pre sured as much. The have yet to intercept a pa s in eight quarters of action, and have just three sacks. That's not going to get it done. In fairne s to Rob, over his 12 seasons as a coordinator -- in Oakland, Cleveland, Dallas and New Orleans -- he hasn't had many difference makers on that side of the ball.When it comes to the offense, we heard all offseason that the would become more ground-oriented. Well, they currently and .Overall, New Orleans appears to be a team that wants more balance -- to avoid having Brees throw 650 times again -- but the have not shown the ability to run the ball and play strong enough defense to stick with that plan. Just think: Even Denver had to take a detour from that plan, and the have a suffocating defense. It's much harder for the to stay true to those principles when they're not really stopping anyone.ScheduleUpon first glance, is full of opportunity: New Orleans draws the relatively forgiving AFC South for interconference games and for the interdivisional slate. But take a closer look at the immediate future and there's peril, including three tough road games in the next five weeks.Next up , a team that's never been intimidated by the and only seems to lose when games turn into track meets. The then have -- and yes, they appear to be catching the at the perfect time. But then they must ... before hosting ... and going back on the road that is currently 0-2 but surely isn't as bad as it has looked. You have to think New Orleans is the underdog in four of the next five games.*****All of the above factors into the current uneasine s in the Big Easy. How can the heal their wounds?Payton might eventually have to consider and focusing solely on the head-coaching duties, ceding play-calling responsibilities to his offensive coordinator, Pete Carmichael. That could work; Carmichael and Brees have proven they are more than capable of running the offense without him. In 2012, when Payton was suspended in the wake of the ' bounty scandal, Brees had 43 touchdown pa ses and eclipsed 5,000 yards through the air. Of course, Brees' shoulder i sue could delay any potential large-scale changes in duties.Whatever happens, Payton will need to try and turn this around quickly. It's been a long time since the 2009 and, in his 10th year with New Orleans, this is when a coach becomes vulnerable to the charge of having "stayed too long." I speak from experience.Follow Brian Billick on Twitter . Matt Thaiss Jersey
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