Rough week in Week 16, and generally things have been weird over the last two weeks. So what better way to close out a strong best bets season than by dispensing with the pleasantries and getting to a HUGE slate of games that I like this week.It's important to think about motivation when it comes to picking games in Week 17 and also not to jump on anything too quickly. For instance, the were -7 a few days ago when it looked like might not play. Now that line is off the board, but it looks like the Rams could sit players and Kyler could be back. So now there's value on the potentially.On the other hand, consider the Bears-Vikings game. The were +1 on Thursday afternoon, but word began leaking out on Friday of the ' plans to sit everyone in this game. The line came off the board in a bunch of spots but the Bears were -2.5 when that happened. Depending on who's out for Minnesota (, , are early names being bandied about), it could end up with the Bears being huge favorites. Act quickly in these spots and there's an opportunity for a window of great value.If you want more insight into every single Week 17 game, check out our picks podcast with myself, R.J. White and Pete Prisco, where we give our picks and leans for every single game against the spread. -3.5 vs. This line makes no sense! The Broncos are playing for nothing, while the Raiders are trying to hit the first leg of a four-game parlay to make the playoffs. Oakland, Indy, Baltimore and Houston all have to win and the Raiders are in. After to sing around some ideas, it finally hit me: the game is being played in Denver. Do you know what the weather's like in Denver in December? It's cold as hell Jean Ratelle Jersey . Do you know who doesn't like playing in cold weather? . His old coach told us as much recently, and the stats back it up. Since 2016, the Raiders have played in three games where the temperature was le s than 40 degrees. In those games, Carr has gone 52 for 100 for 456 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. The Raiders are 0-3 straight up and 1-2 against the spread in those game. The high is 37 on Denver in Sunday. The Raiders are also likely going to be mi sing (why play him??) and is out for the season. Their defense has been struggling in recent weeks and the Broncos have a little something cooking on offense with , and Philip Lindsay.Broncos-Raiders under 41See: above, re: Carr's performance. The Raiders have scored a total of 32 points in their three games when the temperature is below 40 degrees. They will be mi sing multiple offensive starters. Add in the Broncos defense playing pretty well -- no one's scored more than 27 points on them since their Week 10 bye -- and I don't think we see Oakland chunking the ball all over the field. Denver doesn't technically have anything to play for, but they'll be interested in me sing up a rival's playoff hopes and also trying to finish the season on a high note with some young offensive talent playing well. This isn't a team that will keep throwing if they get up early; Denver will lean on Lindsay and and melt the clock. Again, it will be cold, and it could also be windy with wind gusts around 14 mph currently projected. I think this number could drop under 40 so I would get it before Sunday. -3.5 at Bill O'Brien says he will play his starters and play to win this game. I don't believe him. Well, I believe him, but I think he's hedging his bets a little bit. The only reason the game matters to the Texans is if lose on Sunday to the . That could happen, but Vegas obviously doesn't think it's the case, with Kansas City sitting as an 8.5-point favorite. O'Brien can't tell his guys this game doesn't matter and have them not prepare only to watch the Chiefs lose and the Texans not be ready to grab the No. 3 seed. So he's doing the smart thing, acting as if this game definitely matters and then having the freedom to a) make guys inactive or b) simply yank out his starters after the first quarter/a couple of drives/halftime. Either way, the Texans can't po sibly think playing for a full, meaningle s Week 17 game is a smart move after seeing him limp around against the Bucs last week. If the Chiefs win, and I think they will, then you're going to see Houston bail on players. Buy the Titans now before the line creeps back up. Depending on what happens with Jackson Edward Jersey KC, I think it ends up closing -5 or -7 before kick. +11 at This is just too many points. Washington is on a three-game losing streak, but they've lost those games by a combined 21 points, including six of which came on a *not-so-meaningle s* last-second touchdown from the . The Redskins should be on an ATS heater right now if Philly hadn't screwed it up. They secretly could be on a five-game winning streak if things broke their way. has actually played some good football over the course of 2019 and having Terry McLaurin/Steven Sims as weapons should allow him to exploit a questionable Cowboys defense. Washington's defense has been bad over the last two weeks, but some of the points scored against them were in garbage time or overtime. They still like to control clock/run the ball. If they can get a turnover or two here, or if shoulder still isn't right, Washington can win this game outright. I'll happily take the double digits. Chiefs -8.5 vs. ChargersSomeone explain to me how the Chargers get off the mat for this game after being embarra sed last week "at home" by the Raiders. The Chiefs have everything to play for here: if they win and the lose, Kansas City is the No. 2 seed and gets a bye in the first round of the playoffs. A Pats lo s is unlikely, but the Chiefs also need to win to stay ahead of the Texans, so I expect a full effort from KC here. They've been playing good football and would likely want to roll it into the playoffs with a strong performance in Week 17. Don't expect them to pile on the points, but we've seen them really lock teams down, giving up just 31 points the last four weeks. The Chiefs are going to win this game by double digits, mainly because the Chargers seem pretty checked out on the season. offers some significant backdoor cover potential, but he could also help the Chiefs steal a cover with a pick six, which would not be out of character whatsoever.Chiefs-Chargers under 45The Chiefs have hit on four straight unders out of their Week 12 bye, again thanks in large part to the way the defense is playing. KC is giving up one full yard per play le s on defense over the last four weeks than they did for the first 11 weeks of the season. This defense is GOOD, people. The Chargers are one of the slowest teams in football, checking in at fourth in terms of time of po se sion per drive. The Chiefs are sixth. These teams are both slow and methodical. Bonus, it's going to be cold (40 degrees or le s) and fairly windy (10-12 mph winds throughout the game). The Chargers are 1-4 against the spread since 2015 in games below 40 degrees (see: above) and the under is 3-2 in those games. The over hit on 39 in Denver earlier this year, but it shouldn't have, and the other over was the wild 2018 game against the Chiefs where Rivers went nuts late. The Chiefs are a different team now and they're not giving up 38 points. This could be mola ses game that surprises people. If they score early, consider jumping on the under live. +1.5 at The Bills are a substantially better team, but because they're so much better, Buffalo is locked into the No. 5 seed as a a playoff team. The Jets are not a playoff team, but they are trying to close the season strong for Adam Gase and . If they end up 7-9 after starting 1-7, it's a pretty easy sell to ownership and to the fanbase that this Jets team is prepped for big things in 2020, regardle s of whether or not it's true. As such, you should expect the Jets to give it their all in this game. The Bills, meanwhile, are coached by Sean McDermott. We've never seen how he might handle resting his starters, but he comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree and Reid isn't afraid to sit guys down in spots like these. The Bills have a huge road matchup coming on Wild-Card Weekend, so it makes a ton of sense to ensure guys like , , etc. don't get injured. I would suggest getting this one in now before the Bills announce any plans to sit players.Jaguars-Colts under 43The are fifth in the NFL in terms of time of po se sion per drive, a run-heavy team that's trying to grind out an 8-8 season and isn't capable of to sing up huge numbers, not with how Frank Reich's got this team working on offense. The had a free pa s to to s up points on the last week after getting down 14-0 in the first few minutes and just completely refused to do so. They're not a good team. They haven't had more than 300 yards in total offense over the last four weeks. The Raiders thing was a total last-minute fluke. Colts might be a good bet here too honestly. Indy is going to get up 10 points or so and just grind this thing out.Ravens-Steelers under 37.5There's no reason a over should be north of 35. This team cannot score. I don't care if the rest every single player they have on defense, which, as John Harbaugh pointed out, they can't do, because you can only rest so many people. The Ravens are going to come into this game resting most of their key players -- , , Marshall Yanda, , etc. -- but they're still going to want to knock the Steelers out of the playoffs by beating them with their backups. is better than Duck Hodges. The Ravens have been aggre sive all season but will be looking to kill clock in this one. The Steelers don't score and don't give up points. This one is staying under 35. Season recordWeek 14 best bets ATS record: 1-3-1, -2u2019 best bets ATS record: 52-41-5, +12uPick Six Parlay of the WeekThree gamer here for the boys. Short and simple. We all liked these bets as our best bets and there's no need to force an over/under that we've been whiffing on all season long.Ravens +2Titans -3.5Broncos -3.5.5u to win 3uSeason record: 1-15, -2.0uPick Six Underdog Parlay of the WeekOh MAN did the Titans screw us last week. And maybe it was just the refs when they didn't review the fumble that featured an illegal hit against a defensele s player. Another three-game dog parlay this week. Gotta get into the black before the regular season ends. +135Ravens +110 +165.5u to win 6uSeason Record: 1-15, -2.38u Steve Kasper Jersey