The global coal market is at a critical inflection point, with record-high demand and production now giving way to a forecast of gradual decline through the end of the decade. According to the International Energy Agency's Coal 2025 report, the coal market forecast points to global demand stabilizing at current levels before edging down, with production and trade following a similar trajectory amid structural shifts in energy systems worldwide .

Demand Forecast to 2030

Global coal demand is projected to plateau at around 8.85 billion tonnes in 2025—a new record—before a slight decline to 8.58 billion tonnes by 2030 . This represents a decrease of approximately 3% over the five-year period, driven largely by shifts in the power sector, which accounts for two-thirds of total coal consumption . With renewable capacity surging, nuclear expanding steadily, and a huge wave of liquefied natural gas coming to market, coal-fired power generation is forecast to decline from 2026 onward .

The share of coal in global power generation is expected to fall from 35% in 2024 to 27% by 2030 . Global coal demand for power generation is projected to plateau at around 5,710 million tonnes, with installed coal-fired capacity remaining high but average utilisation declining as retrofitting programs enable lower minimum load operation and faster ramping to complement variable renewables . In the industrial sector, coal demand is expected to remain more resilient, with the coal-to-chemicals sector consolidating its role as the main growth driver while cement and steel lose share structurally .

Regional Forecast Divergence

The largest absolute increase in coal consumption to 2030 is expected to take place in India, where demand is set to rise by 3% per year on average, leading to an overall increase of over 200 million tonnes . By 2030, India's total coal demand is projected to increase by 17% . The fastest growth is forecast to happen in Southeast Asia, where demand is set to increase by over 4% per year to 2030 . In contrast, China's coal demand is expected to decline slightly, from around 4.95 billion tonnes in 2025 to 4.77 billion tonnes by 2030 . The European Union and the United States register further declines of 153 million tonnes and 106 million tonnes, respectively .

Supply and Trade Forecast

Global coal production is expected to plateau at 9.111 billion tonnes in 2025 after peaking at 9.114 billion tonnes in 2024, before gradually declining to 8.64 billion tonnes by 2030 . China's production is forecast to gradually decrease from 4.73 billion tonnes in 2025 to 4.44 billion tonnes by 2030 . India's production will continue to rise, reaching 1.09 billion tonnes in 2025 and increasing to 1.28 billion tonnes by 2030 . Indonesia's production is expected to decline by 107 million tonnes to 671 million tonnes by 2030 . International coal trade is forecast to peak at 1.54 billion tonnes in 2024, drop by 5% to 1.47 billion tonnes in 2025, and further decrease to 1.3 billion tonnes by 2030 .

Price and Risk Outlook

The Australian coal price is projected to rise 20% in 2026 to average $130/mt before falling 12% in 2027, according to the World Bank's April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook . This forecast assumes that conflict-related disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supply keep coal substituting for natural gas in power generation . Upside risks to the forecast include extended delays in natural gas trade normalizing, broader-than-expected AI-driven electricity demand that could bring underutilized coal plants back online, and stronger-than-expected coal consumption in China and India . Downside risks include weaker-than-expected economic growth and a potential supply glut . The Coal Market forecast to 2030 underscores that coal's role in the global energy system remains significant but is increasingly shaped by the rapid expansion of renewable energy, policy interventions, and the evolving demand dynamics of Asia.